Πέμπτη, 31 Μαΐου 2018

Ρωσία VS Ιράν (Μάιος 2018)

Η Ρωσία και το Ισραήλ συμφώνησαν να επιτρέπει η Ρωσία στο Ισραήλ να χτυπάει την Χεζμπολάχ και το Ιράν στα σύνορα Ισραήλ-Συρίας (κυρίως στην από την άλλη πλευρά των Υψωμάτων Γκολάν), και να επιτρέψουν οι Ισραηλινοί στις δυνάμεις του Άσαντ να ξαναπάρουν τον έλεγχο σε αυτήν την περιοχή.

Εικόνα


Προς το παρόν οι Ισραηλινοί στην απέναντι πλευρά του Γκολάν υποστηρίζουν κάτι Σουνιτικές φυλές εναντίον της Χεζμπολάχ και του Ιράν. Νομίζω αυτούς που υποστηρίζει και η Ιορδανία αλλά δεν είμαι σίγουρος.

Επίσης οι Ρώσοι συμφώνησαν αν ο Άσαντ ξαναπάρει τον έλεγχο ολόκληρης της Συρίας να ζητήσουν από όλους τους ξένους στρατιώτες να αποχωρήσουν, Αμερικανούς και Τούρκους δηλαδή, συμπεριλαμβανομένων όμως και των Ιρανών. Φαντάζομαι ότι θα δεσμεύονται ότι θα διασφαλίσουν ότι ο Άσαντ δεν θα χτυπήσει τους Κούρδους στην συνέχεια. Οι Ιρανοί απάντησαν ότι κανένας δεν θα αναγκάσει το Ιράν να κάνει κάτι που δεν θέλει, εννοώντας ότι δεν μπορεί η Ρωσία να τους αναγκάσει να αποχωρήσουν από την Συρία. Βλέπε World Politics Review “Is Iran and Russia’s Ad Hoc Alliance in Syria Unraveling?”, Μάιος 2018

Χάρτης Συρία Ιράκ



Νομίζω όμως ότι αν τα βρούνε Αμερικανοί και Ρώσοι οι Ιρανοί δεν μπορούν να κάνουν κάτι. Γιατί οι Γάλλοι και οι Βρετανοί δεν είναι έτοιμοι να πάνε σε σύγκρουση με τις ΗΠΑ για χάρη της Μουσουλμανικής Αδελφότητας. Μπορούν να πάνε κόντρα στις ΗΠΑ σε διπλωματικό επίπεδο φυσικά, αλλά όχι σε στρατιωτικό. Και μην ξεχνάτε ότι ο άξονας Σαουδική Αραβία-Ηνωμένα Αραβικά Εμιράτα-Αίγυπτος-Ισραήλ δεν είναι ένας Ρωσικός άξονας, άρα αν η Ρωσία δεν υποστηρίξει την Τουρκία και το Ιράν εναντίον αυτού του άξονα κάτι παίρνουν και αυτοί, έστω και ως second best σε σχέση με τον Σουνιτικό άξονα (Κατάρ-Τουρκία) που είναι η ιδανική λύση.

 Αλλά και η Κίνα μέχρι τώρα στην Συρία στήριζε Ρωσία-Ιράν μόνο σε διπλωματικό επίπεδο χωρίς να ανακατεύεται παραπάνω, και δεν νομίζω ότι θα πάει στην παρούσα φάση σε μία κόντρα με την Ρωσία στην Συρία, τουλάχιστον όχι αυτή την στιγμή. Θα μου πεις και τα όπλα που έδιναν οι Βορειοκορεάτες στον Άσαντ τα έδιναν χωρίς την έγκριση της Κίνας? Ε δεν νομίζω, αλλά η Κίνα δεν έχει ανακατευτεί πολύ, και γενικότερα αποφεύγει να μπλέκεται στην κόντρα Ιράν-Σαουδικής Αραβίας παρόλο που ο βασικός της σύμμαχος είναι το Ιράν. Η Κίνα έχει τεράστιες συμφωνίες και με την Σαουδική Αραβία.

Η Σαουδική Αραβία με την τεράστια παραγωγή της, πολύ μεγαλύτερη από αυτήν του Ιράν, ήταν ο μεγαλύτερος προμηθευτής πετρελαίου της Κίνας, αλλά τώρα την ξεπέρασε η Ρωσία και η Σαουδική Αραβία είναι δεύτερη. Βλέπε Reuters

Χάρτης Πετρέλαιο (μαύρο) Φυσικό Αέριο (κόκκινο) Μέσης Ανατολής




Russia remains China's largest oil supplier for 10th month”, Ιανουάριος 2018
1η Παράγραφος
Russia held firm as China’s top crude oil supplier in December for the 10th month and racked up its second year as the No.1 supplier to China in 2017, customs data showed on Thursday, leaving rival exporter Saudi Arabia in second place once more.



“Is Iran and Russia’s Ad Hoc Alliance in Syria Unraveling?”, Μάιος 2018
Now that the tide in the Syrian civil war appears to have definitely turned in favor of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, one of the key factors that will shape Syria’s future is the precise nature and durability of the relationship between the two countries that saved Assad from collapse: Iran and Russia.

Tehran and Moscow worked together to bolster Assad, but the character of their ad hoc alliance has always remained a bit of a mystery. They each, for their own purposes, wanted the regime in Damascus to survive. Beyond that, it has never been clear just how committed Russian President Vladimir Putin has been to his links with the Islamic Republic.

Recent developments, particularly regarding Israel’s concerns about Iran, have started casting some light on that question, revealing an outline of Putin’s position that is causing alarm in Tehran. Iran and Russia are already diverging. And now there are reports that Moscow has more unpleasant surprises in store for Iran.

Early on in the war raging to its north, Israel made its position clear. The Israeli Defense Forces, or IDF, would not become involved in the conflict, except to ensure that what Israel calls its red lines are not crossed. Those red lines include the introduction of advanced weapons by Hezbollah, the opening of a new front for attacks against Israel from Syria, and the establishment by Iran of a permanent military presence in Syria.

Israel repeatedly bombed Hezbollah weapons convoys and armament facilities, but when Russia entered the conflict in 2015, it raised the possibility that Russian air defenses would thwart Israel’s raids. Instead, as Assad consolidates his gains in the war and an endgame nears, Israel has become even more engaged in destroying what it views as Iranian positions that could be used to attack it. And it has done this with Russia’s acquiescence.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting regularly with Putin, and there are signs that the two see eye-to-eye on key aspects of Syria’s future. That, without a doubt, is troubling news for Iran.

The most dramatic example of Russia’s willingness to see Iran’s wings in Syria clipped came three weeks ago, when Iran and Israel faced off across the Syrian border, the first direct clash by the two countries after years of rising tensions. It was May 10, just after President Donald Trump announced he was pulling the United States out of the nuclear deal with Iran. Israel accused Iran of launching a barrage of missiles across the border from Syria and unleashed a crushing response, striking dozens of Iranian targets in Syria. The IDF said it had hit logistics headquarters belonging to the Quds Force, the elite unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as weapons depots, intelligence systems and other facilities. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman warned, “If there is rain on our side, there will be a flood on their side.”

The United States sided with Israel, saying Iran should refrain from further provocations. And in a rare development, the European Union did, too, declaring that “Israel has the right to defend itself,” while calling the clash “extremely worrying.”

As for Russia, it didn’t have very much to say. Netanyahu had spent 10 hours talking to Putin just before the blistering counterattack unfolded. Clearly, he had a green light. Russian air defenses did nothing to stop Israeli jets, and the Foreign Ministry in Moscow blandly urged Iran and Israel to solve their differences diplomatically.
What looks very much like an unofficial understanding between Netanyahu and Putin could well turn into a formal agreement. Israeli television reported this week that Israel and Russia have reached a secret deal to keep Iranian forces away from the border in southern Syria. Under the purported terms of the agreement, which has not been confirmed, Israel would accept the return of the Syrian army to the border along the Golan Heights, and Russia would guarantee that no forces from Iran or its partner Shiite militia, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, would be allowed in the area. In addition, according to the report, Russia will push for all foreign forces to leave Syria, which includes Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey and the United States.

Whether or not the reported agreement is confirmed, it is clear that Syria’s war has entered a stage where the objectives of Iran and Russia—Assad’s two lifelines—are in conflict. Russia wants a stable Syria, in the hands of a strong regime that maintains good relations with Moscow and secures Russia’s access to the Mediterranean; Assad will do, but it doesn’t have to be him. Iran, for its part, wants to have a regime it can control—one that facilitates the continuing transfer of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and creates a safe corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean. Ideally, Iran wants to build up and maintain its presence in Syria. But Israel’s rejection of that position means that Russia cannot find the stability it wants as long as Iran crosses Israel’s red lines by entrenching itself in Syria.

That problem is creating tensions between Iranian and Syrian forces. There are reports that Syrian army members are pushing to remove Iranian and Hezbollah fighters from their bases for fear that Israel will attack.

Tensions between Iran and Russia have already been rising to the surface. When Putin said earlier this month that all foreign forces should leave once Assad retakes control of the entire country, a visibly irritated spokesman at Iran’s Foreign Ministry shot back. “No one can make Iran do things,” he said, vowing “no one will extract us from Syria.”

The signs are still not conclusive that Russia has decided Iranian forces should not be allowed to remain in the country. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said this week that only Syrian army forces belong on the Syrian side of the border with Israel. That means no Hezbollah or Iranian forces standing meters away from Israelis, but it doesn’t openly reject the idea of future Iranian positions elsewhere in the country.

For now, both Moscow and Damascus still need Tehran-loyal forces, including Hezbollah and Quds Force operatives helping to fight anti-Assad rebels. While they do that, bilateral talks between Israel and Russia are continuing, revealing the limits of a partnership between Iran and Russia that is already fraying after achieving its goal of securing Assad’s survival.



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